Author: Brazil Talk

Events, National Politics

What Nobody Wants to Say about the Current Political Crisis in Brazil.


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By Rodrigo R. Soares

[5 min read]

A lot has been said about the political fragmentation in the current pre-electoral scenario in Brazil. This fragmentation has been mostly interpreted as reflecting increased radicalization, and seen as a manifestation of the underlying political preferences of a significant fraction of society. It is undeniable that there has been an increased degree of political radicalization in Brazilian society and that this radicalization also manifests itself in the pre-electoral scenario. However,  I believe most of this fragmentation comes from the increasing lack of representativeness of the political system and its detachment from the demands and preferences of a major part of the Brazilian population.

The current fragmentation can find its closest historical precedent in the first direct presidential elections, in 1989, after the end of the military dictatorship, when over 20 candidates were registered in the first round –  5 of which got more than 8% of the votes, and, 7 got close to 5% or more. The worrisome difference with this precedent is that, then, despite the disappointing outcome of the election and the ensuing impeachment process, the country was coming out of a military dictatorship and there was a lot of faith in the democratic institutions and the recently born political system. In addition, an extensive and diversified gallery of leading figures in the fight against dictatorship offered political alternatives that seemed electorally feasible and morally legitimate. We no longer have the luxury of relying on figures anointed by history to exercise political leadership. This generation has passed, and the country must move on, willingly or not.

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National Politics, Uncategorized

The Next General Elections in Brazil – Is Change Coming?


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by Marcio Fortes

[3 min read]

Brazil’s upcoming elections will not be the first one to be held in the new Brazilian political system, as was expected. On the contrary, it will be the last one of the current political period – which began in 1982 when the first direct elections for governors took place after the military regime. The President of the Republic as well as Governors for the 26 States and the Federal District will be elected by a majority of votes on a two round system on two separate occasions provided no candidate gets a majority in the first round. Two Senators will be chosen for each State, by simple majority in a single round on the same day the President and Governors. On the same day, the elections for the Federal Chamber of Deputies and the 27 state Assemblies will take place. The members of these Assemblies will be chosen by a less than common system. The votes are counted in Party Lists, but given individually for the candidates- a system called Open Party List.

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Blog, Economy, National Politics

The Brazilian fiscal crisis: the lost credibility


By Tatiana Acar

[7 min read]

 

Assessing how credibility affects both the economy and individuals in a tangible way is a complex issue in the economic debate. We can conceive the delicate concept of confidence through the image of a horse being trained to jump obstacles. In order to gain his trust, the athlete needs to show commitment and respect. With sufficient warning, the horse tends to follow his commands, and both will have a durable relationship. However, unexpectedly forcing it to jump will make the horse suspicious. If surprised, he can harm the athlete and destroy all the environment around him. Worse, once the trust is betrayed, it is hard to recover it. Brazil’s current crisis scenario could be linked to this metaphor since the fiscal misconduct seen in the last years has undermined the population’s confidence and generated great disarray among consumers, businesses, and investors. Output growth has fallen more than 7% in two years[1], causing unemployment more than doubling[2]. Recovering the lost development will consume a large part of Brazil’s next presidential term, which has been predicted by some analysts already[3]. But why has the country reached this stage? What is the relationship between credibility and the level of employment and income?

Credibility is built when people notice, over time, that the government has not only committed to the policy it communicated, but it has also managed to achieve its goals[4]. When a government spends continuously and increasingly, uncertainty about the country’s fiscal solvency tends to be higher. Thus, the effect of fiscal stimulus on the economy and individuals might become counterproductive by pushing up long-term interest rates, inflationary expectations and undermining longer-term growth prospects. This puts the government into a dangerous vicious circle, as the fall in the output causes a drop on tax revenues, further increasing the fiscal imbalance.

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Foreign Policy

Brazil’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations


by: Fernanda Nogueira and Mario Saraiva


On October 27, Brazil Talk in the company of Brazilian students at Columbia University was invited to visit the Brazilian Mission at the UN in order to learn more about this massive and at times veiled organization. Members of the Mission exposed the actions Brazil is undertaking at the UN and discussed the role of international organizations in different developmental challenges in Brazil. We’ll aim to highlight the main learning points from the visit.

Brazil Talk Visits Brazil's UN Mission
Brazil Talk Visits Brazil’s UN Mission

It was startling to realize how little we know about what exactly entails the work of the UN. The UN is a complex organization. (more…)